Insights from our Q4 Conflux Dinner 

Twenty-five manufacturing leaders, government officials, and those who service them walked into one room last week with the same question on their minds: How do we build companies when the old rules don’t work anymore?

What happened over the next two and a half hours wasn’t your typical industry networking event. No presentations. No sales pitches. Just manufacturers, bankers, advisors, and city officials sitting around tables, calling it like they see it.

And what they’re seeing? A manufacturing landscape that’s forcing companies to either innovate or get left behind.

The Workforce Problem Nobody Asked For

Here’s the reality: Job applications at St. Louis manufacturers have dropped 75% since 2021. Technical school enrollments are down 50% on average. And when companies do find candidates, they’re competing against Boeing’s $30/hour entry-level wages and Bank of America teller positions at $25/hour with air conditioning and zero calluses.

One attendee from a local aerospace manufacturer laid it out plainly: “We sent our Workforce Development Manager to State Tech in Linn with two full scholarships. He came back with all the money. Every single incoming freshman was already on a full ride, and companies were buying them perks on top of that. It’s like recruiting Olympic athletes.”

So what are manufacturers doing about it?

They’re building their own pipelines.

The same company now runs an apprenticeship program with 28 people in various stages of training. They’re recruiting middle schoolers. They’re hosting 120 kids at a time in factory tours, betting that exposure at age 11 or 12 is what it takes to plant the seed.

As one leader put it: “Kids want to be what they see. If they don’t know manufacturing exists, they can’t choose it.”

The AI Reality Check

The conversation shifted to AI with the kind of pragmatism you’d expect from people who actually make things. No hype. No fear-mongering. Just manufacturers working through what’s possible, what’s profitable, and what’s next.

The consensus? You can’t afford not to adopt it.

“This is a winner-take-all situation,” said one attendee. “If you’re in a lower-margin business and someone gets a 10-15% cost advantage through AI, companies making 5-10% margin just disappear. It’s not tomorrow, but it’s not terribly far away either.”

But here’s what manufacturers are actually doing with AI right now: Using it to train new employees faster. Automating non-value-added work. Prompting supervisors when machine cycle times drift. Aggregating data that used to require expensive production monitoring hardware.

One company mentioned using an internal AI bot that new hires can ask questions instead of constantly pulling managers off the floor. Simple. Practical. Solving a real problem today.

The table that dove deepest into AI came back with this takeaway: “We can’t afford not to. It’s not a race against others. It’s about how you make yourself better each day.”

The City Question That Won’t Go Away

We were fortunate to have Gregory F.X. Daly from the City of St. Louis join us for part of the evening, and his presence opened up one of the most candid conversations of the night about doing business in the city.

The 1% earnings tax came up immediately. Not as the biggest problem, but as a symbol of a bigger issue: manufacturers pay substantial taxes but don’t feel they’re getting the support those taxes should buy.

“Crime and the earnings tax,” said one attendee. “Every time I talk to a manufacturing company, those are the two reasons they don’t want to be in St. Louis.”

The frustration ran deeper than policy, though. One business owner described picking bullets out of her roof and paying six figures in damages from street racing. Another talked about struggling to recruit talent in her neighborhood.

But here’s where the conversation turned productive: What if some of the education budget funded trade schools specifically for city companies? What if businesses got tax credits for keeping their trained workforce in the city? What if apprenticeship programs were subsidized like they are in Kansas City?

These aren’t wild ideas. They’re what manufacturers came up with when you put them in a room and ask: “What would actually move the needle?”

The Union Generation Gap

An unexpected theme emerged around workforce culture. Union representatives at a local career fair reported their biggest challenge isn’t recruiting kids; it’s retaining them once older union members treat them the way they were treated coming up.

“These kids do not operate under that philosophical situation,” one attendee noted. “They leave.”

Meanwhile, another manufacturer shared that his young workers aren’t viewing their jobs as 40-year careers like the previous generation. They’re bringing in brothers, mothers, and cousins, but with a fundamentally different relationship to work.

The old “nobody taught me, so I’m not teaching you” mentality? It’s not just outdated. It’s actively costing manufacturers the next generation of skilled workers.

Why This Conversation Matters

This dinner wasn’t about solving St. Louis manufacturing’s problems in two hours. It was about creating a space where the people actually dealing with these challenges could talk honestly about what’s working, what’s not, and what they haven’t tried yet.

That’s what Conflux dinners do.

No agenda. No sponsorship pitches. No prepared remarks. Just manufacturing leaders, from companies like Seyer Industries, Diode Dynamics, Cambridge Air, Heidtman Steel, Shapiro Metals, and more, sharing what’s really happening in their businesses.

One attendee summed it up: “You realize you’re not the only one facing certain challenges. It’s a chance to learn from others who’ve already been through it. And people here are genuinely open to sharing their experiences. I’ve sat across from competitors willing to talk about challenges and offer advice.”

Join Us in Q1 2025

If you’re a manufacturing leader, CEO, president, sales leader, owner, VP of HR, or finance professional in the St. Louis area, we’d love to have you at our next quarterly dinner.

These conversations happen because the right people show up willing to share the unvarnished truth about building manufacturing companies in 2025.

Interested in joining us? Reach out here to reserve your seat at our Q1 dinner.

Because the best insights don’t come from consultants. They come from the people actually doing the work.